FR4.R2.3

Batch Universal Prediction

Marco Bondaschi, Michael Gastpar, EPFL, Switzerland

Session:
MDL and Prediction

Track:
11: Information Theory and Statistics

Location:
Ypsilon I-II-III

Presentation Time:
Fri, 12 Jul, 17:05 - 17:25

Session Chair:
Or Ordentlich, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) have recently gained much popularity due to their surprising ability at generating human-like English sentences. LLMs are essentially predictors, estimating the probability of a sequence of words given the past. Therefore, it is natural to evaluate their performance from a universal prediction perspective. In order to do that fairly, we introduce the notion of batch regret as a modification of the classical average regret, and we study its asymptotical value for add-constant predictors, in the case of memoryless sources and first-order Markov sources.
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